Oil price increases of 2004 and 2005

Oil price in 2003-2005 Average US retail price of regular unleaded gasoline Oil prices from 1860-1999 in 1999 dollars. Source: [1]

The price of standard crude oil on NYMEX was under $25/barrel in September 2003. By August 11, 2005, the price had been above $60/barrel for over a week and a half. A record price of $70.85 per barrel was reached on August 29, 2005.[2] While oil prices are considerably higher than a year ago, they are still roughly 25$ from exceeding the inflation-adjusted "peak of the 1980 shock, when prices were over $90 a barrel in today’s prices" [3].

In the United States gasoline prices reached an all time high during the first week of September 2005 in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. The average retail price was nearly $3.04 per gallon. The previous high was $2.38 per gallon in March 1981, which would be $3.03 per gallon after adjusted for inflation.[4][5]

Demand

High demand is led by the U.S. market, the source of an increasing percentage of the world's demand for petroleum. The U.S. economy currently accounts for one-quarter of all demand. New demand is also coming from emerging industry in third world nations, including India and especially China which is developing a western-style car culture and whose manufacturing bases have grown very rapidly in recent years.

Sources of the world-consumption-increase in 2004 compared to 2003 (total increase of 3.4%), according to U.S. Department of Energy Energy Information Administration estimates: [6]

China: 38.9%
US: 19.4%
Asia outside Japan and China: 13.8%
Canada: 4%
UK: 3.5%
combined other non-OECD: 21%

Note: the total percentage exceeds 100 because the overall demand from all other countries decreased during the same period..

Supply

There are a number of reasons why oil traders feel that oil supplies might be reduced. One of the most important is growing turbulence in the Middle East, the world's largest oil producing region. The war in Iraq, Iran's nuclear program, and questions about Saudi Arabia's internal stability all could in the future lead to a dramatic fall in the supply of oil. Outside the Middle East other oil producers have worried investors such as the strikes political problems in Venezuela and potential instability in West Africa.

In late August, 2005, Hurricane Katrina crippled the supply-flow from off-shore rigs in the Gulf Coast, the largest source of oil for the domestic U.S. market. Short-term shutdowns because of power outages knocked out two major on-shore pipelines, and at least 10% of the nation's refining capacity was not operating in the wake of the storm. Gas prices in the region, normally 70 cents below the national average, were at $3.12 on August 30.[7]

World supply (specification) came in at 83 million barrels a day during 2004 in department of energy EIA calculations ([8]). This rate of increase is faster than that of any other date in the past. Despite this there is increasing discussion of peak oil and the possibility that the future may see a reduced supply of oil. Even if oil supplies themselves are not reduced, some experts feel the easily accessible sources of light sweet crude are almost exhausted and in the future the world will depend on more expensive sources of oil.

The short term price of oil is partially controlled by the OPEC cartel and the oligopoly of major oil companies. One other important cause is the United States dollar's slump against the Euro. Since oil is traded in dollars, the price must increase for OPEC to maintain buying power in Europe.

Causes

Some people and news agencies argue that labor strikes, hurricane threats to oil platforms, fires and terrorist threats at refineries, and other general problems are responsible for the higher gas prices. Critics argue that these problems periodically push price higher, but that they are not fundamental or long term enough to cause the large jump in gas price. A more fundamental problem that some believe is causing the price to rise is the probability of peak oil already or soon to be reached. Not only is there a limited amount of fossil fuels which have been burnt as fuel, but however much remains will be used faster by a growing industrialized world population and what remains will be more dificult to get since the easiest wells have been tapped and the remaining sources will be fought over in resource wars.

Others believe that the price of oil is almost entirely speculative, and that the increase in price is due to oil speculation extending into the long term. These people argue that speculators foresee increasing demand, decreasing supply, or both, leading to a long term increase in the price of oil. If these speculators are wrong, current prices may actually be a price bubble, and the price could thus collapse. A July 14, 2005 Morgan Stanley report[9] suggests that opinions of the oil market could burst just like a bubble if indications of declining Asian demand continue.

Still others suggest that the main issue is a lack of energy efficiency in industry. These analysts believe the problem would be solved by increasing the efficiency of factories, homes and transportation and easing the demand crunch by using less energy and more renewable energy.

Spring & Summer 2005 increase

Overnight gas price hike shown at a Chicago area bp station (background). The Shell station (foreground) has not yet posted the 12 cent price hike.

After retreating for several months during the winter of 2004/2005, prices rose to new highs in March 2005. The price of light, sweet crude oil on NYMEX has been above $50/barrel since March 5, 2005. On March 16, 2005, the price surpassed the October 2004 high of $55.17 to close at $56.46. In April 2005 the price began to fall, reaching $53.32 on April 9. It then reversed course and headed to an all time high of $58.28, driven mainly by lingering concerns of a prolonged weak dollar. In June 2005 crude oil prices surged to record highs eventually breaking the psychological barrier of $60.

Saudi Arabian King Fahd's death on August 1, 2005, meant a new regime that may be less amicable to U.S. influence. During mid-August, with a string of refinery snags (fires/other deterrents to oil refining), shrinking gasoline inventories, and a growing thirst for oil by American consumers, New York Mercantile Exchange traded crude oil futures surged past the $66 mark and briefly touched $67/barrel. Over the course of three weeks leading up to August 10, crude oil prices had risen by 13%.

While the street price of gasoline usually corresponds to the price of crude oil, refinery capacity can become the governing factor, particularly during periods of high demand. In addition, there are different grades of oil and each refinery is typically configured to process a narrow range of grades. As a result, shortage of a particular grade of oil can keep street prices high, even when overall supply exceeds demand.

Winter 2006 increase

On January 17, sweet crude oil for February delivery rose by $2.38 (3.7%) to $66.30 a barrel. This was the highest increase since early October 2005. Observers believe that violence in Nigeria, and Iran's friction with the West are responsible for this price increase. Continued concerns about Iran raised the price to $68.38 on January 31.[10]

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Hurricane Katrina

Gas price hike shown at a Shell station.

Hurricane Katrina had a major impact on oil and gas prices, especially within the United States. The Gulf Coast is home to a major portion of America's refining capacity. The port of Louisiana is one of its most important inlet for oil imports, and the gulf itself is a major oil producer. Port Fourchon has also suffered long term damage. Louisiana Offshore Oil Port has not. [11]

Gas prices soared after the closing down of the major pipelines connecting the gas of the Louisiana region to the entire East Coast. In Stockbridge, Georgia, regular gas prices came to $5.87 at a BP station. Shortages were feared or experienced in several states including Tennessee [12], Alabama [13], and South Carolina. [14] Many of these were blamed on panic buying. Airports began to report shortages in aviation fuel on 2 September.[15] A shortage could lead to a decrease in food production.[16] Higher prices for heating oil and natural gas were expected as the winter heating season set in.[17]

On 5:10 p.m. EDT, on 31 August, President Bush announced the Energy Department was approving loans from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and that EPA announced nationwide waver on fuel blends. Bush stated, "This storm has disrupted the ability to make gasoline and deliver gasoline," and "This is going to be a difficult road."[18] Many people have observed however that stores of crude oil do little to address inadequate refinery and distribution capacity.

In order to stabilize world energy supplies, the International Energy Agency offered to sell two million barrels of crude oil and other refined products from national supplies. These supplies would begin entering the US markets within two weeks of 2 September. [19] [20] The press release from the IEA states, "... the implications for the oil market are global."[21]

Effects

There is controversy regarding the potential effects of oil-price shocks. Some see these increases in the price of oil leading to a recession comparable to those that followed the 1973 and 1979 energy crises or a potentially worse situation such as a global oil crash. Most economists see this as unlikely, partly because all developed countries have high fuel taxes that decrease as oil prices increase and can be eliminated in the event of a dramatic price spike. Nevertheless, that loss of revenue would put a strain on government balance sheets. The American Strategic Petroleum Reserve could on its own supply current U.S. demand for about a month in the event of an emergency, unless it is also destroyed in the emergency. This could well be the case if a major storm were to hit the gulf, where the reserve is located. While total consumption has increased [22], the western economies are less reliant on oil than they were twenty-five years ago, due to substantial growths in productivity. In the United States, for instance, each $1000 dollars in GDP required 2.4 barrels of oil in 1973 when adjusted for inflation this number had fallen to 1.15 by 2001. But oil's historically high ratio of Energy Returned on Energy Invested continues a significant decline. Despite the rapid increase in the price of oil, neither the stock markets nor the growth of the global economy have been noticeably affected. Inflation has increased. In the United States, the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.6% compared to 0.2% for September. This was driven by a 4.2% increase in energy costs. As a result during this period the Federal Reserve has rapidly been increasing interest rates to curb inflation.

Economists say that the substitution effect will spur demand for alternate energy sources, such as coal or liquified natural gas. For example, China and India are currently heavily investing in natural gas facilities. Nigeria is working on burning natural gas to produce electricity instead of simply flaring the gas. Outside the US, more than 50% of oil is consumed for stationary, non-transportation purposes such as electricity production where it is relatively easy to substitute natural gas for oil.

The increased price of oil also makes previously impractical sources of oil attractive to businesses. The most prominent example of this are the massive reserves of the Canadian tar sands. They are a far less cost efficient source of oil than crude, but at 60 dollars a barrel, the tar have recently become very attractive to businesses. Recent months have seen billions of dollars invested in the oil sands.

The increased price of oil might also encourage greater fuel efficiency. Recent years have seen a move towards more fuel-thirsty sport utility vehicles in the United States and Canada, and this may be stopped by the high price of gas. The September 2005 sales data for all the vehicles vendor indicated SUV sales dropped while small cars sales increased compared with 2004 sales. There is also an ever increasing market for hybrid vehicles since they are more fuel efficient; since the 1973 energy crisis, the front-wheel drive passenger car has replaced rear-wheel drive as the preferred layout for energy efficient cars. There is an increasing demand of crossover sport utilities which are more fuel efficient - especially for those based on passenger car platforms.

USA Stock markets

Three-year performance of the oil industry... ...and one-month performance.

The increase in oil prices over two years was mirrored by an increase in stock values in the energy sector. The value of the stock in companies such as Apache[23] and Conoco-Phillips [24] rose sharply during this period. These prices increased more rapidly toward the end of August, particularly after Hurricane Katrina. [25]

Wal-Mart shares continued their decrease in value that began with the increase in the oil prices. Over two years, stock in Wal-Mart dropped in value by 25% from $60 per share to under $45 per share. [26] Earlier in August, Wal-Mart announced that higher than expected oil prices cut into the corporation's profits for the 2nd quarter of 2005. Since oil prices after the end of the 2nd quarter continued to rise, 3rd quarter profits from Wal-Mart are expected to be small. Because Wal-Mart's distribution system relies on the customer to drive to a large discount big-box store, increases in the price of fuel might discourage some customers from making the trip as often. Wal-Mart, like all retailers, will also face higher shipping costs to get goods from the factory to the stores. This will likely cause inflationary pressures.

Asia Pacific Region (excludes Australasia)

The Pacific rim had been experiencing this crisis on an ongoing basis prior to Hurricane Katrina.

In the Philippines, the oil crisis caused its public to call for immediate government assistance. [27] New sources of energy were sought to deal with the crisis.[28]
A senior minister of Singapore expressed concern at the oil crisis in Indonesia.[29]
The Indonesian president had instituted subsidies to control the price of gasoline.[30]

Sub-Saharan Africa

High oil prices are hurting many countries in Africa, including Zimbabwe, Eritrea and Tanzania. High oil prices have created an oil supply instability, per barrel price instability or both. In some cases this has led to fuel rationing being enacted.

Many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa lack the foreign exchange reserves (ie, Dollars) to purchase enough oil products at the ever increasingly higher prices. These nations must resort to limiting imports or rationing their existing supplies.

Latin America & Caribbean

Venezuela's president, Hugo Chávez, came under increasing scrutiny as he began selling oil at lower-than-market prices to island nations in the Caribbean. [31]

At the same time, Cuba has experienced electricity shortages.

Gulf States & Eurasian Arab-Islamic Regions

Iran came under increasing pressure from the European Union in regard to their program to build nuclear power plants.[32]

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Iran came under increasing pressure from the European Union in regard to their program to build nuclear power plants.[32]. intelligent design controversy: the probability of life "evolving" rather than having been "created" may appear unlikely at first sight, but the evidence that this is the case could be argued to be so widespread, deep, and heavily scrutinized that it would be illogical to conclude that any other (and arguably less scientifically compelling) hypothesis should take its place as the primary theory. [31]. To transpose the "Bridge" metaphor to the evolution vs. Venezuela's president, Hugo Chávez, came under increasing scrutiny as he began selling oil at lower-than-market prices to island nations in the Caribbean. This argument could be seen as a riposte to those advocates of intelligent design who claim that only a sentient creator could have arranged the universe in such a way as to be conducive to life. In some cases this has led to fuel rationing being enacted. Still, it would be absurd for someone to be dealt a hand, examine it carefully, calculate that the probability of getting it is less than one in 600 billion, and then conclude that he must not have been dealt that very hand because it is so very improbable.".

High oil prices have created an oil supply instability, per barrel price instability or both. When one is dealt a bridge hand of thirteen cards, the probability of being dealt that particular hand is less than one in 600 billion. High oil prices are hurting many countries in Africa, including Zimbabwe, Eritrea and Tanzania. "Rarity by itself shouldn't necessarily be evidence of anything.
. In "Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and its Consequences", John Allen Paulos suggests that the apparent improbability of a given scenario cannot necessarily be taken as an indication that this scenario is therefore more unlikely than any other potential one:. The Pacific rim had been experiencing this crisis on an ongoing basis prior to Hurricane Katrina. Scientists state that this argument contributes nothing to scientific knowledge since it merely answers the question with an explanation as problematic as the question which the explanation purports to answer and which is ultimately unanswerable and unverifiable.

This will likely cause inflationary pressures. This has also been characterized as the "God of the gaps" argument, which has the following form:. Wal-Mart, like all retailers, will also face higher shipping costs to get goods from the factory to the stores. They feel many intelligent design concepts could be described in these terms, especially the neologisms, which they contend are designed to end the desire for further investigation rather than to serve as the basis of scientific hypotheses. Because Wal-Mart's distribution system relies on the customer to drive to a large discount big-box store, increases in the price of fuel might discourage some customers from making the trip as often. In scientific terms, "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" for naturalistic explanations of observed traits of living organisms. Since oil prices after the end of the 2nd quarter continued to rise, 3rd quarter profits from Wal-Mart are expected to be small. They contend that most scientists would reply that unexplained is not unexplainable, and that "we don't know yet" is a more appropriate response than invoking a cause outside of science.^[70] Particularly, Michael Behe's demands for ever more detailed explanations of the historical evolution of molecular systems seem to assume a dichotomy where either evolution or design is the proper explanation, and any perceived failure of evolution becomes a victory for design.

[26] Earlier in August, Wal-Mart announced that higher than expected oil prices cut into the corporation's profits for the 2nd quarter of 2005. They say that intelligent design is an argument from ignorance as it relies upon a lack of knowledge for its conclusion: Lacking a natural explanation, we assume intelligent cause. Over two years, stock in Wal-Mart dropped in value by 25% from $60 per share to under $45 per share. Eugenie Scott with Glenn Branch and other critics have argued that many points raised by intelligent design proponents are arguments from ignorance.^[69] In the argument from ignorance, one claims that the lack of evidence for one view is evidence for another view. Wal-Mart shares continued their decrease in value that began with the increase in the oil prices. Cognitive science continues to investigate the nature of intelligence to that end, but the intelligent design community for the most part seems to be content to rely on the assumption that intelligence is readily apparent as a fundamental and basic property of complex systems. [25]. Intelligence derived from randomness is essentially indistinguishable from the "innate" intelligence associated with biological organisms and poses a challenge to the intelligent design conception of whence intelligence itself is derived (namely from a designer).

These prices increased more rapidly toward the end of August, particularly after Hurricane Katrina. Furthermore, forays into such areas as quantum computing seem to indicate that real probabilistic functions may be available in the future. The value of the stock in companies such as Apache[23] and Conoco-Phillips [24] rose sharply during this period. Evolutionary algorithms use the Darwinian metaphor of random mutation, selection and the survival of the fittest to solve diverse mathematical and scientific problems that are usually not solvable using conventional methods. The increase in oil prices over two years was mirrored by an increase in stock values in the energy sector. Evolutionary algorithms, a subfield of machine learning (itself a subfield of artificial intelligence), have been used to mathematically demonstrate that randomness and selection can be used to "evolve" complex, highly adapted structures that are not explicitly designed by a programmer. There is an increasing demand of crossover sport utilities which are more fuel efficient - especially for those based on passenger car platforms. Rather, if a computer program can access randomness as a function, this effectively allows for a flexible, creative, and adaptive intelligence.

There is also an ever increasing market for hybrid vehicles since they are more fuel efficient; since the 1973 energy crisis, the front-wheel drive passenger car has replaced rear-wheel drive as the preferred layout for energy efficient cars. The criticism is a counter to intelligent design claims about what makes a design intelligent, namely that "no preprogrammed device can be truly intelligent, that intelligence is irreducible to natural processes."^[68] In particular, while there is an implicit assumption that supposed "intelligence" or creativity of a computer program was determined by the capabilities given to it by the computer programmer, artificial intelligence need not be bound to an inflexible system of rules. The September 2005 sales data for all the vehicles vendor indicated SUV sales dropped while small cars sales increased compared with 2004 sales. As a means of criticism, certain skeptics have pointed to a challenge of intelligent design derived from the study of artificial intelligence. Recent years have seen a move towards more fuel-thirsty sport utility vehicles in the United States and Canada, and this may be stopped by the high price of gas. Intelligent design proponents, they say, are proposing both searching for a designer without knowing anything about that designer's abilities, parameters, or intentions (which scientists do know when searching for the results of human intelligence) as well as denying the very distinction between natural/artificial design that allows scientists to compare complex designed artifacts against the background of the sorts of complexity found in nature. The increased price of oil might also encourage greater fuel efficiency. Critics say that the design detection methods proposed by proponents are radically different from conventional design detection, undermining the key elements that make it possible as legitimate science.

Recent months have seen billions of dollars invested in the oil sands. Seth Shostak, a researcher with the SETI Institute, refutes Dembski's claim, saying that intelligent design advocates base their inference on complexity — the argument being that some biological systems are too complex to have been made by natural processes — while SETI researchers are looking primarily for artificiality.^[67]. They are a far less cost efficient source of oil than crude, but at 60 dollars a barrel, the tar have recently become very attractive to businesses. Dembski, instead, asserts that "in special sciences ranging from forensics to archaeology to SETI (the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence), appeal to a designing intelligence is indispensable."^[66] How this appeal is made and what this implies as to the definition of intelligence are topics left largely unaddressed. The most prominent example of this are the massive reserves of the Canadian tar sands. William Dembski, for example, has written that "Intelligence leaves behind a characteristic signature." Such characteristics of intelligent agency are assumed to be observable without intelligent design specifying what the criteria for the measurement of intelligence should be. The increased price of oil also makes previously impractical sources of oil attractive to businesses. The phrase intelligent design makes use of an assumption of the quality of an observable intelligence, a concept that has no scientific consensus definition.

Outside the US, more than 50% of oil is consumed for stationary, non-transportation purposes such as electricity production where it is relatively easy to substitute natural gas for oil. Critics, largely members of the scientific community, reject this claim, pointing out that no established scientific journal has yet published an intelligent design article, and that intelligent design proponents have set up their own journals with "peer review" that consists entirely of intelligent design supporters which lack rigor. Nigeria is working on burning natural gas to produce electricity instead of simply flaring the gas. Despite this, the Discovery Institute claims that a number of intelligent design articles have been published in peer reviewed journals,^[65] including in their list the two articles mentioned above. For example, China and India are currently heavily investing in natural gas facilities. In sworn testimony at the Kitzmiller trial Behe stated that "there are no peer reviewed articles by anyone advocating for intelligent design supported by pertinent experiments or calculations which provide detailed rigorous accounts of how intelligent design of any biological system occurred"^[64] and, as summarized by the judge, conceded that there are no peer-reviewed articles supporting his claims of intelligent design or irreducible complexity. Economists say that the substitution effect will spur demand for alternate energy sources, such as coal or liquified natural gas. Dembski has written that "Perhaps the best reason [to be skeptical of his ideas] is that intelligent design has yet to establish itself as a thriving scientific research program."^[62] In a 2001 interview Dembski said that he stopped submitting to peer-reviewed journals because of their slow time-to-print and that he makes more money from publishing books.^[63].

As a result during this period the Federal Reserve has rapidly been increasing interest rates to curb inflation. In the Kitzmiller trial, intelligent design proponents referenced just one paper, on simulation modeling of evolution by Behe and Snoke, that mentioned neither irreducible complexity nor intelligent design and that Behe admitted did not rule out known evolutionary mechanisms. This was driven by a 4.2% increase in energy costs. (see Sternberg peer review controversy). In the United States, the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.6% compared to 0.2% for September. The choice of venue for this article was also considered problematic, because it was so outside the normal subject matter. Inflation has increased. The article was literature review, which means that it did not present any new research, but rather culled quotes and claims from other papers to argue that the Cambrian explosion could not have happened by naturalistic processes.

Despite the rapid increase in the price of oil, neither the stock markets nor the growth of the global economy have been noticeably affected. Meyer, it appeared in the peer-reviewed journal Proceedings of the Biological Society of Washington in August 2004. But oil's historically high ratio of Energy Returned on Energy Invested continues a significant decline. Written by the Discovery Institute's Center for Science & Culture Director Stephen C. In the United States, for instance, each $1000 dollars in GDP required 2.4 barrels of oil in 1973 when adjusted for inflation this number had fallen to 1.15 by 2001. The only article published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal that made a case for intelligent design was quickly withdrawn by the publisher for having circumvented the journal's peer-review standards. While total consumption has increased [22], the western economies are less reliant on oil than they were twenty-five years ago, due to substantial growths in productivity. Harper Jr., foundation vice president, said that "From the point of view of rigor and intellectual seriousness, the intelligent design people don't come out very well in our world of scientific review."^[61] At the Kitzmiller trial the judge found that intelligent design features no scientific research or testing.

This could well be the case if a major storm were to hit the gulf, where the reserve is located. Charles L. demand for about a month in the event of an emergency, unless it is also destroyed in the emergency. For instance, the Templeton Foundation, a former funder of the Discovery Institute and a major supporter of projects seeking to reconcile science and religion, says that they asked intelligent design proponents to submit proposals for actual research, but none were ever submitted. The American Strategic Petroleum Reserve could on its own supply current U.S. The debate over whether intelligent design produces new research, as any scientific field must, and has legitimately attempted to publish this research is extremely heated, and critics and advocates point to numerous examples to make their case. Nevertheless, that loss of revenue would put a strain on government balance sheets. The issue that the scientific method is based on methodological naturalism and so does not accept supernatural explanations becomes the sticking point for intelligent design and is addressed in "The Wedge" strategy as an axiom of science that must be challenged before intelligent design could be accepted by the broader scientific community.

Most economists see this as unlikely, partly because all developed countries have high fuel taxes that decrease as oil prices increase and can be eliminated in the event of a dramatic price spike. This claim is described as a conspiracy theory by some scientists.^[60]. Some see these increases in the price of oil leading to a recession comparable to those that followed the 1973 and 1979 energy crises or a potentially worse situation such as a global oil crash. Proponents believe that the merit of their writings is rejected for not conforming to purely naturalistic non-supernatural mechanisms rather than on grounds of their research not being up to "journal standards". There is controversy regarding the potential effects of oil-price shocks. Intelligent design, by appealing to a supernatural agent, conflicts with the naturalistic axiom of science. the implications for the oil market are global."[21]. Dembski, Behe and other intelligent design proponents claim bias by the scientific community is to blame for the failure of their research to be published.

[19] [20] The press release from the IEA states, ".. To date, the intelligent design movement has yet to have an article published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. These supplies would begin entering the US markets within two weeks of 2 September. The failure to follow the procedures of scientific discourse, and the failure to submit work to the scientific community which withstands scrutiny, has weighed against intelligent design being considered valid science. In order to stabilize world energy supplies, the International Energy Agency offered to sell two million barrels of crude oil and other refined products from national supplies. We have concluded that it is not, and moreover that ID cannot uncouple itself from its creationist, and thus religious, antecedents.". Bush stated, "This storm has disrupted the ability to make gasoline and deliver gasoline," and "This is going to be a difficult road."[18] Many people have observed however that stores of crude oil do little to address inadequate refinery and distribution capacity. Jones III ruled that "we have addressed the seminal question of whether ID is science.

EDT, on 31 August, President Bush announced the Energy Department was approving loans from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and that EPA announced nationwide waver on fuel blends. Dover Area School District on December 20, 2005, Judge John E. On 5:10 p.m. In deciding Kitzmiller v. Airports began to report shortages in aviation fuel on 2 September.[15] A shortage could lead to a decrease in food production.[16] Higher prices for heating oil and natural gas were expected as the winter heating season set in.[17]. The four Daubert criteria are:. [14] Many of these were blamed on panic buying. The Daubert Standard governs which evidence can be considered scientific in United States federal courts and most state courts.

Shortages were feared or experienced in several states including Tennessee [12], Alabama [13], and South Carolina. Intelligent design critics also say that the intelligent design doctrine does not meet the criteria for scientific evidence used by most courts, the Daubert Standard. In Stockbridge, Georgia, regular gas prices came to $5.87 at a BP station. In light of its apparent failure to adhere to scientific standards, in September 2005 38 Nobel laureates issued a statement saying "intelligent design is fundamentally unscientific; it cannot be tested as scientific theory because its central conclusion is based on belief in the intervention of a supernatural agent."^[58] And in October 2005 a coalition representing more than 70,000 Australian scientists and science teachers issued a statement saying "intelligent design is not science" and called on "all schools not to teach Intelligent Design (ID) as science, because it fails to qualify on every count as a scientific theory."^[59]. Gas prices soared after the closing down of the major pipelines connecting the gas of the Louisiana region to the entire East Coast. Typical objections to defining intelligent design as science are that it lacks consistency,^[53] violates the principle of parsimony,^[54] is not falsifiable,^[55] is not empirically testable,^[56] and is not correctable, dynamic, tentative or progressive.^[57]. [11]. The fewer which are matched, the less scientific it is; and if it meets only a couple or none at all, then it cannot be treated as scientific in any meaningful sense of the word.

Louisiana Offshore Oil Port has not. For any theory, hypothesis or conjecture to be considered scientific, it must meet most, but ideally all, of the above criteria. Port Fourchon has also suffered long term damage. For a theory to qualify as scientific it must be:. The port of Louisiana is one of its most important inlet for oil imports, and the gulf itself is a major oil producer. Intelligent design proponents have often said that their position is not only scientific, but that it is even more scientific than evolution, and want a redefinition of science to allow "non-naturalistic theories such as intelligent design".^[52] This presents a demarcation problem, which in the philosophy of science is about how and where to draw the lines around science. The Gulf Coast is home to a major portion of America's refining capacity. The scientific method is based on an approach known as methodological naturalism to study and explain the natural world, without assuming the existence or nonexistence of the supernatural.

Hurricane Katrina had a major impact on oil and gas prices, especially within the United States. with the theory of evolution [within] the borders of scientific theory". Continued concerns about Iran raised the price to $68.38 on January 31.[10]. An example is Cardinal Schönborn who sees "purpose and design in the natural world" yet has "no difficulty.. Observers believe that violence in Nigeria, and Iran's friction with the West are responsible for this price increase. Many religious people do not condone the teaching of what is considered unscientific or questionable material, and support theistic evolution which does not conflict with scientific theories. This was the highest increase since early October 2005. From a strictly empirical standpoint, one may list what is known about Egyptian construction techniques, but must admit ignorance about exactly how the Egyptians built the pyramids.

On January 17, sweet crude oil for February delivery rose by $2.38 (3.7%) to $66.30 a barrel. The inference that an intelligent designer (a god or an alien life force)^[49] created life on Earth has been compared to the a priori claim that aliens helped the ancient Egyptians build the pyramids.^[50]^[51] In both cases, the effect of this outside intelligence is not repeatable, observable, or falsifiable, and it violates Occam's Razor. As a result, shortage of a particular grade of oil can keep street prices high, even when overall supply exceeds demand. Even though evolution theory does not explain abiogenesis, the generation of life from nonliving matter, intelligent design proponents cannot infer that an intelligent designer is behind the part of the process that is not understood scientifically, since they have not shown that anything supernatural has occurred. In addition, there are different grades of oil and each refinery is typically configured to process a narrow range of grades. Indeed, intelligent design proponent Michael Behe concedes "You can't prove intelligent design by experiment."^[48]. While the street price of gasoline usually corresponds to the price of crude oil, refinery capacity can become the governing factor, particularly during periods of high demand. Furthermore, intelligent design is neither observable nor repeatable, which critics argue violates the scientific requirement of falsifiability.

Over the course of three weeks leading up to August 10, crude oil prices had risen by 13%. They allege that intelligent design has substituted public support for scientific research.^[47] Furthermore, if one were to take the proponents of "equal time for all theories" at their word, there would be no logical limit to the number of potential "theories" to be taught in the public school system, including admittedly silly ones like the Flying Spaghetti Monster "theory." There are innumerable mutually-incompatible supernatural explanations for complexity, and intelligent design does not provide a mechanism for discriminating among them. During mid-August, with a string of refinery snags (fires/other deterrents to oil refining), shrinking gasoline inventories, and a growing thirst for oil by American consumers, New York Mercantile Exchange traded crude oil futures surged past the $66 mark and briefly touched $67/barrel. According to critics, intelligent design has not presented a credible scientific case, and is an attempt to teach religion in public schools, which the United States Constitution forbids under the Establishment Clause. influence. Some allege that this larger debate is often the subtext for arguments made over intelligent design, though others note that intelligent design serves as an effective proxy for the religious beliefs of prominent intelligent design proponents in their efforts to advance their religious point of view within society.^[44]^[45]^[46]. Saudi Arabian King Fahd's death on August 1, 2005, meant a new regime that may be less amicable to U.S. Many intelligent design followers believe that "Scientism" is itself a religion that promotes secularism and materialism in an attempt to erase theism from public life, and view their work in the promotion of intelligent design as a way to return religion to a central role in education and other public spheres.

In June 2005 crude oil prices surged to record highs eventually breaking the psychological barrier of $60. Teaching both, intelligent design supporters argue, allows for the possibility of religious belief, without causing the state to actually promote such beliefs. It then reversed course and headed to an all time high of $58.28, driven mainly by lingering concerns of a prolonged weak dollar. Supporters also hold that religious neutrality requires the teaching of both evolution and intelligent design in schools, saying that teaching only evolution unfairly discriminates against those holding creationist beliefs. In April 2005 the price began to fall, reaching $53.32 on April 9. Proponents say that evidence exists in the forms of irreducible complexity and specified complexity that cannot be explained by natural processes. On March 16, 2005, the price surpassed the October 2004 high of $55.17 to close at $56.46. Intelligent design proponents argue that naturalistic explanations fail to explain certain phenomena, and that supernatural explanations provide a very simple and intuitive ^[43] explanation for the origins of life and the universe.

The price of light, sweet crude oil on NYMEX has been above $50/barrel since March 5, 2005. Johnson, calls "theistic realism",^[42] and what critics call "methodological supernaturalism," which means belief in a transcendent, non-natural dimension of reality inhabited by a transcendent, non-natural deity. After retreating for several months during the winter of 2004/2005, prices rose to new highs in March 2005. Intelligent design proponents seek to change this definition^[40] by eliminating "methodological naturalism" from science^[41] and replacing it with what the leader of the intelligent design movement, Phillip E. These analysts believe the problem would be solved by increasing the efficiency of factories, homes and transportation and easing the demand crunch by using less energy and more renewable energy. Natural science uses the scientific method to create a posteriori knowledge based on observation alone (sometimes called empirical science). Still others suggest that the main issue is a lack of energy efficiency in industry. The intelligent design controversy centers on three issues:.

A July 14, 2005 Morgan Stanley report[9] suggests that opinions of the oil market could burst just like a bubble if indications of declining Asian demand continue. A key strategy of the intelligent design movement is in convincing the general public that there is a debate among scientists about whether life evolved, seeking to convince the public, politicians, and cultural leaders that schools should "teach the controversy."^[38] However, there is no such controversy; the scientific consensus is that life evolved.^[39]. If these speculators are wrong, current prices may actually be a price bubble, and the price could thus collapse. The two leading intelligent design proponents, Phillip Johnson and William Dembski, cite the Bible's Book of John as the foundation of intelligent design.^[35]^[36] Barbara Forrest contends that such statements reveal that leading proponents see intelligent design as essentially religious in nature, as opposed to a scientific concept that has implications with which their personal religious beliefs happen to coincide.^[37]. These people argue that speculators foresee increasing demand, decreasing supply, or both, leading to a long term increase in the price of oil. But the conceptual soundness of the theory can in the end only be located in Christ."^[33] Dembski also stated "ID is part of God's general revelation..." "Not only does intelligent design rid us of this ideology (materialism), which suffocates the human spirit, but, in my personal experience, I've found that it opens the path for people to come to Christ."^[34]. Others believe that the price of oil is almost entirely speculative, and that the increase in price is due to oil speculation extending into the long term. The pragmatics of a scientific theory can, to be sure, be pursued without recourse to Christ.

Not only is there a limited amount of fossil fuels which have been burnt as fuel, but however much remains will be used faster by a growing industrialized world population and what remains will be more dificult to get since the easiest wells have been tapped and the remaining sources will be fought over in resource wars. However, in his book intelligent design; the Bridge Between Science and Theology Dembski states that "Christ is indispensable to any scientific theory, even if its practitioners don't have a clue about him. A more fundamental problem that some believe is causing the price to rise is the probability of peak oil already or soon to be reached. For example, William Dembski in his book The Design Inference^[32] lists a god or an "alien life force" as two possible options for the identity of the designer. Critics argue that these problems periodically push price higher, but that they are not fundamental or long term enough to cause the large jump in gas price. The conflicting claims made by leading intelligent design advocates as to whether or not intelligent design is rooted in religious conviction are the result of their strategy. Some people and news agencies argue that labor strikes, hurricane threats to oil platforms, fires and terrorist threats at refineries, and other general problems are responsible for the higher gas prices. The preponderance of leading intelligent design proponents are evangelical Protestants.

Since oil is traded in dollars, the price must increase for OPEC to maintain buying power in Europe. Meyer, are Christians and have stated that in their view the designer of life is God. One other important cause is the United States dollar's slump against the Euro. only then can 'biblical issues' be discussed."^[30] Johnson explicitly calls for intelligent design proponents to obfuscate their religious motivations so as to avoid having intelligent design identified "as just another way of packaging the Christian evangelical message."^[31] The principal intelligent design advocates, including Michael Behe, William Dembski, Jonathan Wells (actually a member of the Unification Church, headed by Reverend Moon), and Stephen C. The short term price of oil is partially controlled by the OPEC cartel and the oligopoly of major oil companies. Johnson emphasizes "the first thing that has to be done is to get the Bible out of the discussion" and that "after we have separated materialist prejudice from scientific fact .. Even if oil supplies themselves are not reduced, some experts feel the easily accessible sources of light sweet crude are almost exhausted and in the future the world will depend on more expensive sources of oil. Johnson has stated that cultivating ambiguity by employing secular language in arguments which are carefully crafted to avoid overtones of theistic creationism is a necessary first step for ultimately reintroducing the Christian concept of God as the designer.

Despite this there is increasing discussion of peak oil and the possibility that the future may see a reduced supply of oil. Phillip E. This rate of increase is faster than that of any other date in the past. Intelligent design arguments are carefully formulated in secular terms and intentionally avoid positing the identity of the designer. World supply (specification) came in at 83 million barrels a day during 2004 in department of energy EIA calculations ([8]). She has written that the movement's "activities betray an aggressive, systematic agenda for promoting not only intelligent design creationism, but the religious world-view that undergirds it."^[29]. Gas prices in the region, normally 70 cents below the national average, were at $3.12 on August 30.[7]. Barbara Forrest, an expert who has written extensively on the movement, describes this as being due to the Discovery Institute obfuscating its agenda as a matter of policy.

Short-term shutdowns because of power outages knocked out two major on-shore pipelines, and at least 10% of the nation's refining capacity was not operating in the wake of the storm. In statements directed at the general public they state that intelligent design is not religious, while they state that intelligent design has its foundation in the Bible,^[28] when addressing conservative Christian supporters. market. Leading intelligent design proponents have made conflicting statements regarding intelligent design. In late August, 2005, Hurricane Katrina crippled the supply-flow from off-shore rigs in the Gulf Coast, the largest source of oil for the domestic U.S. Johnson, considered the father of the intelligent design movement, stated that the goal of intelligent design is to cast creationism as a scientific concept.^[26] All leading intelligent design proponents are fellows or staff of the Discovery Institute and its Center for Science and Culture.^[27] Nearly all intelligent design concepts and the associated movement are the products of Discovery Institute which guides the movement in follows its wedge strategy while conducting its adjunct Teach the Controversy campaign. Outside the Middle East other oil producers have worried investors such as the strikes political problems in Venezuela and potential instability in West Africa. Phillip E.

The war in Iraq, Iran's nuclear program, and questions about Saudi Arabia's internal stability all could in the future lead to a dramatic fall in the supply of oil. Intelligent design proponents allege that science shouldn't be limited to naturalism, and shouldn't demand an adoption of a naturalistic philosophy that dismisses any explanation that contains a supernatural cause out of hand. One of the most important is growing turbulence in the Middle East, the world's largest oil producing region. Leaders of the intelligent design movement say intelligent design exposes the limitations of scientific orthodoxy and of the secular philosophy of Naturalism.
There are a number of reasons why oil traders feel that oil supplies might be reduced. The intelligent design movement arose out of an organized neocreationist campaign directed by the Discovery Institute to promote a religious agenda calling for broad social, academic and political changes employing intelligent design arguments in the public sphere, primarily in the United States. Note: the total percentage exceeds 100 because the overall demand from all other countries decreased during the same period.. Answering "what designed the designer?" leads to an infinite regression from which intelligent design proponents can only escape by resorting to religious creationism or logical contradiction.

Department of Energy Energy Information Administration estimates: [6]. The new question raised by the explanation is as problematic as the question which the explanation purports to answer."^[25] Critics see the claim that the designer need not be explained not as a contribution to knowledge but as a thought-terminating cliché. Sources of the world-consumption-increase in 2004 compared to 2003 (total increase of 3.4%), according to U.S. Invoking an unexplained being to explain the origin of other beings (ourselves) is little more than question-begging. New demand is also coming from emerging industry in third world nations, including India and especially China which is developing a western-style car culture and whose manufacturing bases have grown very rapidly in recent years. Asserting the need for a designer of complexity also raises the question, "what designed the designer?" Intelligent design proponents say that the question is irrelevant to or outside the scope of intelligent design,^[24] but Richard Wein counters that the unanswered questions a theory creates "must be balanced against the improvements in our understanding which the explanation provides. economy currently accounts for one-quarter of all demand. for artistic reasons, to show off, for some as-yet undetectable practical purpose, or for some unguessable reason." Coyne responds that in light of the evidence, "either life resulted not from intelligent design, but from evolution; or the intelligent designer is a cosmic prankster who designed everything to make it look as though it had evolved.".

The U.S. Odd designs could, for example, "have been placed there by the designer.. market, the source of an increasing percentage of the world's demand for petroleum. For example, Jerry Coyne, of the University of Chicago, asks why a designer would "give us a pathway for making vitamin C, but then destroy it by disabling one of its enzymes" and why he or she wouldn't "stock oceanic islands with reptiles, mammals, amphibians, and freshwater fish, despite the suitability of such islands for these species." Evolutionists point to the fact that "the flora and fauna on those islands resemble that of the nearest mainland, even when the environments are very different" as evidence that species were not placed there by a designer.^[23] Behe argued in Darwin's Black Box that we are simply incapable of understanding the designer's motives, so such questions cannot be answered definitively. High demand is led by the U.S. Critics argue that existing evidence makes the design hypothesis appear unlikely. . Intelligent design proponents, such as Dembski, have implied that an alien culture could fulfill these requirements, but since the authoritative description of intelligent design^[21] explicitly states that the universe displays features of having been designed, Dembski concludes that "no intelligent agent who is strictly physical could have presided over the origin of the universe or the origin of life."^[22] Furthermore, the leading proponents have made statements to their supporters that they believe the designer to be the Christian God, to the exclusion of all other religions, and thus there exists a well-established link to Genesis and Creationism.

The previous high was $2.38 per gallon in March 1981, which would be $3.03 per gallon after adjusted for inflation.[4][5]. They do not state that God is the designer, but the designer is often implicitly hypothesized to have intervened in a way that only a God could intervene. The average retail price was nearly $3.04 per gallon. Intelligent design arguments are formulated in secular terms and intentionally avoid identifying the intelligent agent they posit. In the United States gasoline prices reached an all time high during the first week of September 2005 in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. They also suggest that many of the stated variables appear to be interconnected, and that calculations made by mathematicians and physicists suggest that the emergence of a universe similar to ours is quite probable. A record price of $70.85 per barrel was reached on August 29, 2005.[2] While oil prices are considerably higher than a year ago, they are still roughly 25$ from exceeding the inflation-adjusted "peak of the 1980 shock, when prices were over $90 a barrel in today’s prices" [3]. The claim of the improbability of a life-supporting universe has also been criticized as an argument by lack of imagination for assuming no other forms of life are possible; life as we know it may not exist if things were different, but a different sort of life might exist in its place.

By August 11, 2005, the price had been above $60/barrel for over a week and a half. Critics of both intelligent design and the weak form of anthropic principle argue that they are essentially a tautology; in their view, these arguments amount to the claim that life is able to exist because the universe is able to support life. The price of standard crude oil on NYMEX was under $25/barrel in September 2003. Other scientists respond that the argument cannot be tested, is not quantifiable, and is poorly supported by existing evidence.^[20]. At the same time, Cuba has experienced electricity shortages. Intelligent design proponent and Center for Science and Culture fellow Guillermo Gonzalez argues that if any of these values were even slightly different, the universe would be dramatically different, with many chemical elements and features of the universe like galaxies being impossible to form.^[19] Thus, they argue, an intelligent designer of life was needed to ensure that the requisite features were present to achieve that particular outcome. These nations must resort to limiting imports or rationing their existing supplies. These features include the values of physical constants, the strength of nuclear forces, and many others.

Many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa lack the foreign exchange reserves (ie, Dollars) to purchase enough oil products at the ever increasingly higher prices. One of the arguments of intelligent design proponents that includes more than just biology is that we live in a fine-tuned universe, with many features that make life possible that cannot be attributed to chance. The Indonesian president had instituted subsidies to control the price of gasoline.[30]. They argue that this procedure is flawed as a model for scientific inference because the asymmetric way it treats the different possible explanations renders it prone to making false conclusions of design.^[18]. A senior minister of Singapore expressed concern at the oil crisis in Indonesia.[29]. John Wilkins and Wesley Elsberry characterize Dembski's "explanatory filter" as eliminative, because it eliminates explanations sequentially: first regularity, then chance, finally defaulting to design. [27] New sources of energy were sought to deal with the crisis.[28]. The conceptual soundness of Dembski's specified complexity/CSI argument is strongly disputed by the scientific community.^[17] Specified complexity has yet to be shown to have wide applications in other fields as Dembski claims.

In the Philippines, the oil crisis caused its public to call for immediate government assistance. Critics say that this renders the argument a tautology: Complex specified information (CSI) cannot occur naturally because Dembski has defined it thus, so the real question becomes whether or not CSI actually exists in nature. combined other non-OECD: 21%. Dembski defines complex specified information as anything with a less than 1 in 10¹⁵⁰ chance of occurring by (natural) chance. UK: 3.5%. A Shakespearean sonnet is both complex and specified."^[16] He states that details of living things can be similarly characterized, especially the "patterns" of molecular sequences in functional biological molecules such as DNA. Canada: 4%. A long sentence of random letters is complex without being specified.

Asia outside Japan and China: 13.8%. He provides the following examples: "A single letter of the alphabet is specified without being complex. US: 19.4%. Dembski states that when something exhibits specified complexity (i.e., is both complex and specified, simultaneously), one can infer that it was produced by an intelligent cause (i.e., that it was designed) rather than being the result of natural processes. China: 38.9%. The intelligent design concept of specified complexity was developed by mathematician, philosopher, and theologian William Dembski. Furthermore, they argue that evolution often proceeds by altering preexisting parts or by removing them from a system, instead of by adding them; this is sometimes referred to as the "scaffolding objection" by an analogy with scaffolding which can support an (irreducibly complex) building until it is complete and able to stand on its own.

They argue that something which is at first merely advantageous can later become necessary, as other components change. Critics point out that the irreducible complexity argument assumes that the necessary parts of a system have always been necessary, and therefore could not have been added sequentially. coli, the blood clotting cascade, cilia, and the adaptive immune system. Behe's original examples of alleged^[15] irreducibly complex biological mechanisms included the bacterial flagellum of E.

Intelligent design advocates assert that natural selection could not create irreducibly complex systems, because the selectable function is only present when all parts are assembled. The removal of any one piece destroys the function of the mousetrap. A mousetrap consists of several interacting pieces — the base, the catch, the spring, the hammer — all of which must be in place for the mousetrap to work. Behe uses the mousetrap as an illustrative example of this concept.

(Behe, Molecular Machines: Experimental Support for the Design Inference). ...a single system which is composed of several well-matched interacting parts that contribute to the basic function, wherein the removal of any one of the parts causes the system to effectively cease functioning. In the context of intelligent design, irreducible complexity was put forth by Michael Behe, who defines it as:. Counter-arguments against such criticisms are often proffered by intelligent design proponents, as are counter-counter-arguments by critics, etc.

The following are summaries of key concepts of intelligent design, followed by summaries of criticisms. Johnson went on to work with Meyers, becoming the program advisor of the Center for Science and Culture, and is considered the "father" of the intelligent design movement, as a part of its wedge strategy. Johnson following his 1991 book Darwin on Trial which advocated redefining science to allow claims of supernatural creation. The book was published in 1989 and is considered to be the first intelligent design book.^[14] The term was promoted more broadly by the retired legal scholar Phillip E.

In drafts of the book Of Pandas and People, the word 'creationism' was subsequently changed, almost without exception to intelligent design. Meyer, cofounder of the Discovery Institute and vice president of the Center for Science and Culture, reports that the term came up in 1988 at a conference he attended in Tacoma, Washington, called Sources of Information Content in DNA.^[13] He attributes the phrase to Charles Thaxton, editor of Of Pandas and People. Stephen C. Aguillard, ruled out creationism in public school science curricula in 1987.

The term was again resurrected when the Supreme Court of the United States, in the case of Edwards v. The phrase was coined again in Humanism, a 1903 book by Ferdinand Canning Scott Schiller: "It will not be possible to rule out the supposition that the process of evolution may be guided by an intelligent design," and was resurrected in the early 1980s by Sir Fred Hoyle as part of his promotion of panspermia.^[12]. For the cause of this cause we have sought in vain among the physical forces which surround us, until we are at last compelled to rest upon an independent volition, a far-seeing intelligent design.^[11]. No physical hypothesis founded on any indisputable fact has yet explained the origin of the primordial protoplasm, and, above all, of its marvellous properties, which render evolution possible—in heredity and in adaptability, for these properties are the cause and not the effect of evolution.

Though unrelated to the current use of the term, the phrase "intelligent design" can be found in an 1847 issue of Scientific American, in an 1868 book, and in an address to the 1873 annual meeting of the British Association for the Advancement of Science by Paleyite botanist George James Allman:. Dover Area School District court ruling held the latter to be the case. The Kitzmiller v. Whether this was a genuine feature of the concept or just a posture taken to avoid alienating those who would separate religion from science-teaching has been a matter of great debate between supporters and critics of intelligent design.

While intelligent design itself does not name the designer, the personal view of many proponents is that the designer is the Christian god. Intelligent design deliberately does not try to identify or name the specific agent of creation – it merely states that one (or more) must exist. In the past, examples that have been offered included the eye (optical system) and the feathered wing; current examples are mostly biochemical: protein functions, blood clotting, and bacteria flagellum (see irreducible complexity). As evolutionary theory has expanded to explain more phenomena, so the examples held up as evidence of design have changed, but the essential argument remains the same: complex systems imply a designer.

Intelligent design in the late 20th century can be seen as a modern reframing of natural theology. This movement fueled the passion for collecting fossils and other biological specimens that ultimately led to Darwin's theory of the origin of species. In the early 19th century such arguments led to the development of what was called Natural theology, the study of biology as a search to understand the "mind of God". The most notable forms of this argument were expressed by Thomas Aquinas in his Summa Theologiae^[10] (thirteenth century), design being the fifth of Aquinas' five proofs for God's existence, and William Paley in his book Natural Theology (1802), where he uses the watchmaker analogy, which is still used in intelligent design arguments.

The use of this line of reasoning as applied to a supernatural designer has come to be known as the teleological argument for the existence of God. 43 BCE) stated, "The divine power is to be found in a principle of reason which pervades the whole of nature."^[9]. 106–c. In his de Natura Deorum (On the Nature of the Gods) Cicero (c.

384–322 BCE) also developed the idea of a natural creator of the cosmos, often referred to as the "Prime Mover" in his work Metaphysics. Aristotle (c. 347 BCE) posited a natural "demiurge" of supreme wisdom and intelligence as the creator of the cosmos in his work Timaeus. 427–c.

535–c.475 BCE), a Pre-Socratic philosopher, and is briefly explained in his extant fragments.^[8] Plato (c. The philosophical concept of the "Logos" is typically credited to Heraclitus (c. The first recorded arguments for a natural designer come from Greek philosophy. For millennia, philosophers have argued that the complexity of nature indicates the existence of a purposeful natural or supernatural designer/creator.

Note that intelligent design studies the effects of intelligent causes and not intelligent causes per se." In his view, one cannot test for the identity of influences exterior to a closed system from within, so questions concerning the identity of a designer fall outside the realm of the concept. Dembski, in Signs of Intelligence, states "Proponents of intelligent design regard it as a scientific research program that investigates the effects of intelligent causes. Intelligent design proponents say that while evidence pointing to the nature of an "intelligent cause or agent" may not be directly observable, its effects on nature can be detected. This stands in opposition to mainstream biological science, which relies on experiment and collection of uncontested data to explain the natural world exclusively through observed impersonal physical processes such as mutations and natural selection.

Design proponents argue that living systems show one or more of these, from which they infer that some aspects of life have been designed. The most commonly cited signs include irreducible complexity, information mechanisms, and specified complexity. Proponents of intelligent design look for evidence of what they term "signs of intelligence" — physical properties of an object that they assert necessitate design. William Dembski, one of intelligent design's leading proponents, has stated that the fundamental claim of intelligent design is that "there are natural systems that cannot be adequately explained in terms of undirected natural forces and that exhibit features which in any other circumstance we would attribute to intelligence."^[7].

The stated^[6] purpose is to investigate whether or not existing empirical evidence implies that life on Earth must have been designed by an intelligent agent or agents. Intelligent design is presented as an alternative to purely naturalistic forms of the theory of evolution. . Jones III ruled that intelligent design is not science and is essentially religious in nature.

Dover Area School District (2005) United States federal court judge John E. In Kitzmiller v. United States federal courts have ruled as unconstitutional a public school district requirement endorsing intelligent design as an alternative to evolution in science classes, on the grounds that its inclusion violates the Establishment Clause of the First Amendment. National Academy of Sciences has stated that intelligent design "and other claims of supernatural intervention in the origin of life" are not science because they cannot be tested by experiment, do not generate any predictions and propose no new hypotheses of their own.^[5].

An overwhelming majority^[3] of the scientific community views intelligent design not as a valid scientific theory but as pseudoscience or junk science.^[4] The U.S. Intelligent design (ID) is the concept that "certain features of the universe and of living things are best explained by an intelligent cause, not an undirected process such as natural selection."^[1] Its leading proponents, all of whom are affiliated with the Discovery Institute, say that intelligent design is a scientific theory that stands on equal footing with, or is superior to, current scientific theories regarding the origin of life.^[2]. The gap is filled with acts of God and therefore proves God. There is a gap in scientific knowledge.

Whether the teaching of such theories is appropriate and legal in public education. Whether the evidence supports such theories. Whether the definition of science is broad enough to allow for theories of origins which incorporate the acts of an intelligent designer.