Real estate bubble

As of 2005, several areas of the world are thought by some to be in a bubble state, although the subject is highly controversial; see:. February 20, 2003. See also: real estate economics. ^{g1 g2}. A basic summary of the progress of housing indicators for US cities is provided by Business Week [6]. [24] The insurgents are known by the Coalition military (especially in the United States armed forces) as Anti-Iraqi Forces (AIF). The valuation component measures how expensive houses are relative to what most people can afford, and the debt component measures how indebted households become in buying them for home or profit (and also how much exposure the banks accumulate by lending for them). There is evidence that some guerrilla groups are organized, perhaps by the fedayeen and other Saddam Hussein or Ba'ath loyalists, religious radicals, Iraqis angered by the occupation, and foreign fighters.

Indicators describe two interwoven aspects of housing bubble: a valuation component and a debt (or leverage) component. Tactics include mortars, suicide bombers, roadside bombs, small arms fire, and RPGs, as well as sabotage against the oil, water, and electrical infrastructure. By comparing current levels to previous levels that have proven unsustainable in the past (i.e. led to or at least accompanied crashes), one can make an educated guess as to whether a given real estate market is experiencing a bubble or not. The militant forces have been described as a type of guerrilla warfare. In attempting to identify bubbles before they burst, economists have developed a number of financial ratios and economic indicators that can be used to evaluate whether homes in a given area are fairly valued or not. Critics point out that the regions where violence is most common are also the most populated regions. . rotary aircraft with SAM-7 missiles bought on the global black market.

Therefore this article focuses on housing bubbles and mentions other sectors only when their situation differs from housing. In November, some of these forces successfully attacked U.S. Other sectors such as office, hotel and retail generally move along with the residential market, being affected by many of same variables (incomes, interest rates, etc.) and also sharing the "wealth effect" of booms. These irregular forces favored attacking unarmored Humvee vehicles. Due to low inflation in most countries, future corrections may result in a fall in both real and nominal house values. In the fall, the anti-occupation groups, guerrilla units, and other elements (who called themselves "freedom fighters") began using ambush tactics, bombings, kidnappings, and improvised explosive devices, targeting coalition forces, checkpoints, and civilian targets. In select markets though, housing prices have fallen in real and nominal dollars, such as Los Angeles during the late 80s and early 90s. The beginning insurgency in Iraq was concentrated in, but not limited to, an area referred to by the Western media and the occupying forces as the Sunni triangle which includes Baghdad ^[23].

Historically due to inflation, prices do not fall in nominal terms, rather they stay "flat" for a period of 3-5 years. The militants and guerrilla units favored attacking unarmored vehicles and avoiding major battles. Unlike a stock market crash following a bubble, a real-estate "crash" is usually a relatively slower process, because sellers just decide not to sell. These joined the insurgency and their attacks around Mosul, Tikrit and Fallujah. The crash of the Japanese asset price bubble from 1990 on has been very damaging to the Japanese economy and the lives of many Japanese who have lived through it [4], as is also true of the recent crash of the real estate bubble in China's largest city, Shanghai [5]. With the Ba'ath party organization disintegrated, elements of the secret police and Republican Guard formed guerrilla units, since some had simply gone home rather than openly fight the multinational forces. US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in mid-2005 that "at a minimum, there's a little 'froth' (in the US housing market) … it's hard not to see that there are a lot of local bubbles" [3]. Al-Sadr then declared a national cease fire, and opened negotiations with the American and government forces on disbanding his militia and entering the political process.

The Economist magazine said that "the worldwide rise in house prices is the biggest bubble in history" [2], and real estate bubbles are believed to to exist in many parts of the world, especially in many areas of the United States, Great Britain, Australia, New Zealand, Ireland, Spain, and China. Through the months of July and August, a series of skirmishes in and around Najaf culminated with the Imman Ali Mosque itself under siege, only to have a peace deal brokered by al-Sistani in late August. Just like any type of economic bubble, it is difficult for many to identify except in hindsight, after the crash. Militia leader Muqtada al-Sadr took control of Najaf and, after negotiations broke down, the government asked the United States for help dislodging him. It is characterized by rapid speculative increases in the valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels relative to incomes and other economic elements, followed by decreases that can result in many owners holding negative equity (a mortgage debt higher than the value of the property). The new government began the process of moving towards open elections, though the insurgency and the lack of cohesion within the government itself, has lead to delays. A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. Fighting continued in the form of an insurgent rebellion against the new sovereignty, with some parts composed of non-Iraqi Muslim militant groups like Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda.

The Two-Income Trap: Why Middle Class Mothers and Fathers are Going Broke, New York: Basic Books. Sovereign power handed to the interim government ended the occupation of Iraq. Elizabeth Warren and Amelia Warren Tyagi (2003). Toward the end of June (2004), the Coalition Provisional Authority transferred the "sovereignty" of Iraq to a caretaker government, whose first act was to begin the trial of Saddam Hussein. Benjamin Wallace-Wells, "There goes the neighborhood", Washington Monthly, 2004 April.
. Personal Finance for Dummies, 4th ed., Foster City, CA: IDG Books. Also, various insurgent leaders entered into negotiations with the provisional government to lay down arms and enter the political process.

Eric Tyson (2003). Due to various setbacks, the Coalition gradually began admitting that it was facing independent organized rebel forces. The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need (updated ed.), Harcourt Brace and Company. Over the next three months, the multinanational forces took back the southern cities. Andrew Tobias (2005). In all, April, May and early June saw more fighting. The Coming Crash in the Housing Market, New York: McGraw-Hill, Inc. British forces in Basra were faced with increasing insurgency and became more selective in the areas they patrolled.

Talbott (2003). The marines relieved the Poles and Italians, and put down the overt rebellion, but were unable to reestablish control over the centers of the towns. John R. The marines were then shifted south, because Italian and Polish forces were having increasing difficulties retaining control over Nasiriya and Najaf. Princeton University Press. Meanwhile, the fighting continued in the Shiite south. Irrational Exuberance, 2d ed. By the end of the spring uprising, the cities of Fallujah, Samarra, Baquba, and Ramadi had been left under guerrilla control with coalition patrols in the cities at a minimum.

Shiller (2005). This compromise soon fell apart and insurgent control returned. Robert J. While the Marine Division attacking had clear superiority in ground firepower and air support, it decided to accept a truce and a deal which put a former Baathist general in complete charge of the town. A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market, New York: Basic Books. A compromise was reached in order to ensure security within Fallujah itself by creating the local "Fallujah Brigade". John Allen Paulos (2003). The Marines were ordered to stand-down and cordon off the city, maintaining a perimeter around Fallujah.

Norton and Company, Inc. The coalition forces were unable to dislodge the insurgents, and instead suffered repeated attacks on its own rear and flank. W. In the April battle for Fallujah, Coalition troops killed about 600 insurgents and a number of civilians, while 40 Americans died and hundreds were wounded in a fierce battle. A Random Walk Down Wall Street, 8th ed., New York: W. The city of Fallujah remained under insurgent control despite the Marine's attempt to recapture it in Operation Vigilant Resolve. Malkiel (2004). [22].

Burton R. of white phosphorus as an incendiary weapon against insurgents in Fallujah attracted controversy. Norton and Company, Inc. The usage by the U.S. W. Troops pulled back to the outskirts of the city; local leaders reciprocated the ceasefire, although lower-level intense fighting on both sides continued. The Random Walk Guide to Investing: Ten Rules for Financial Success, New York: W. On April 10, the military declared a unilateral truce to allow for humanitarian supplies to enter Fallujah.

Malkiel (2003). On April 9, the multinational force allowed more than 70,000 women, children and elderly residents to leave the besieged city, reportedly also allowing males of military age to leave. Burton R. On April 4, the multinational forces began assaults to clear Fallujah of insurgents. All Booms Bust, History in the Making, All Booms Bust: Making Myself Clear.. After four private military contractors were killed and mutilated, preperation took place for the US Marines to take over responsibility for al-Anbar province in which Fallujah is located. Robert Kiyosaki (2005). Just before the attack on Fallujah, four private military contractors, working for Blackwater USA, were ambushed and their corpses mutilated by a large crowd, receiving a great deal of media attention.

Rich Dad, Poor Dad: What the Rich Teach Their Kids About Money—That the Poor and Middle Class Do Not!, New York: Warner Business Books. The coalition and the Coalition Provisional Authority decided to face the growing insurgency with a pair of assaults: one on Fallujah, the center of the "Mohammed's Army of Al-Ansar", and another on Najaf, home of an important mosque, which had become the focal point for the Mahdi Army and its activities. Robert Kiyosaki (2000).
. The New York Times, December 25th, 2005, Take It From Japan: Bubbles Hurt. The southern and central portions of Iraq were beginning to erupt in urban guerrilla combat as multinational forces attempted to keep control and prepared for a counteroffensive. The Economist, May 28th, 2002, "Going through the roof.". The Mahdi Army also began launching attacks on coalition targets and to seize control from Iraqi security forces.

The Economist, May 29th, 2003, "House of cards.". An organized Sunni insurgency, with deep roots and both nationalist and Islamist motivations, was becoming clearer. The Economist, May 3d, 2005, "Still want to buy?". The bombings indicated that as the relevance of Saddam Hussein and his followers was diminishing, radical Islamists, both foreign and Iraqi. The Economist, April 20th, 2005, "Will the walls come falling down?". Hundreds of Iraqi civilians and police were killed over this period in a series of massive bombings. The Economist, June 16th, 2005, "In come the waves.". Terroristic acts increased during the beginning of 2004.

The Economist, June 16th, 2005, "After the fall.". In all, over 200 top leaders of the former regime were killed or captured, as well as numerous lesser functionaries and military personnel. The Economist, December 8th, 2005, "Hear that hissing sound?.". ^[21] In the summer of 2003, the multinational forces focused on hunting down the remaining leaders of the former regime, culminating in the shooting deaths of Saddam's two sons in July. See also this blog. On 2 July 2003, President Bush declared that American troops would remain in Iraq in spite of the attacks, challenging the opponents with "My answer is, Bring 'em on," a line the President later expressed misgivings about having used. Barron's, "The Bubble's New Home", June 20, 2005. The failure to restore basic services to above pre-war levels, where over a decade of sanctions, bombing, corruption, and decaying infrastructure had left major cities functioning at much-reduced levels, also contributed to local anger at the IPA government headed by an executive council.

Chinese property bubble [10]. Several minor coalition members have pulled out of Iraq; this has been widely considered a political success for the anti-occupation forces. California property bubble. The anti-occupation forces are believed to be predominantly, but not exclusively, Iraqi Sunni Muslim Arabs, plus some foreign Arab and Muslim fighters, some of the latter tied to al-Qaeda. Spanish property bubble. During the early occupation, a number of widely-cited humanitarian, tactical, and political errors by United States and United Kingdom planners and forces led to a growing armed resistance, usually called the "Iraqi insurgency" (such as the mainstream media and coalition governments). Japanese asset price bubble. Guerrilla attacks were less intense.

Irish property bubble. Insurgent forces reorganized during which the multinational forces' tactics were studied and a renewed offensive planned. British property bubble. Early 2004 was marked by a relative lull in violence. US property bubble.
. In this context, supply-and-demand numbers can be misleading: sales demand exceeds supply, but rent demand does not. The two most turbulent centers were the area around Fallujah and the poor Shia sections of cities from Baghdad to Basra in the south.

A low occupancy rate means that the market is in a state of oversupply brought about by speculative construction and purchase. More insurgents stepped up their activities. The occupancy rate (opposite: vacancy rate) is the number of occupied units divided by the total number of units in a given region (in commercial real estate, it is usually expressed terms of area such as square meters for different grades of buildings). Most prominent among these was the Shia cleric Ali al-Sistani. The price-rent ratio is the average cost of ownership divided by the received rent income (if buying to let) or the estimated rent that would be paid if renting (if buying to reside):. Shortly after the capture of Saddam, elements left out of the CPA began to agitate for elections and the formation of a Iraqi Interim Government. This formula is:. Oil revenues were also used for rebuilding schools and for work on the electrical and refining infrastructure.

To compute the P/E ratio for the case of a rented house, divide the price of the house by its potential earnings or net income, which is the market rent of the house minus expenses, which include maintenance and property taxes. Of this, less than half a billion dollars had been spent in 10 months after it had been promised. The price-to-earnings ratio or P/E ratio is the common metric used to assess the relative valuation of equities. The provisional government began training a security force intended to defend critical infrastructure, and the United States promised over $20 billion in reconstruction money in the form of credit against Iraq's future oil revenues. Therefore a high ownership ratio combined with an increased rate of sub-prime lending may signal higher debt levels associated with bubbles. With the weather growing cooler, United States forces were able to operate in full armor which reduced their casualty rate. If a rise in ownership is not supported by a rise in incomes, it can mean either that buyers are taking advantage of low interest rates (which must eventually rise again as the economy heats up) or that home loans are awarded more liberally, to borrowers with poor credit. With the capture of Saddam and a drop in the number of insurgent attacks (an average of 18 a day), some concluded the multinational forces were prevailing in the fight against the insurgency.

Also, governments often enact measures such as tax cuts or subsidized financing to encourage and facilitate home ownership. Army's 4th Infantry Division and members of Task Force 121. It tends to rise steadily with incomes. The operation was conducted by the U.S. The ownership ratio is the proportion of households who own their homes as opposed to renting. In the wave of intelligence information fueling the raids on remaining Ba’ath Party members connected to insurgency, Saddam Hussein himself was captured on December 13, 2003 on a farm near Tikrit. A ratio of 1 means 100% leverage; higher than 1 means negative equity.
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This ratio increases when homeowners refinance and tap into their home equity through a second mortgage or home equity loan. 101st Airborne Division and men from Task Force 20, Saddam Hussein's sons (Uday and Qusay) and one of his grandsons were killed. The housing debt to equity ratio (not to be confused with the corporate debt to equity ratio), also called loan to value, is the ratio of the mortgage debt to the value of the underlying property; it measures financial leverage. On 22 July 2003, during a raid by the U.S. A variant of this indicator measures total home ownership costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, as a percentage of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income; for example see RBC Economics' reports for the Canadian markets (June 2, 2005 report). In addition, two villages, including Saddam’s birthplace of al-Auja and the small town of Abu Hishma were wrapped in barbed wire and carefully monitored. When the ratio gets too high, households become increasingly dependent on rising property values to service their debt. Surveillance of major routes, patrols, and raids on suspected insurgents were stepped up.

The housing debt to income ratio or debt-service ratio is the ratio of mortgage payments to disposable income. Suspected ambush sites and mortar launching positions struck from the air and with artillery fire. In either case, the usefulness of this ratio in identifying a bubble is debatable; while downpayments normally increase with house valuations, bank lending becomes increasingly lax during a bubble and mortgages are offered to borrowers who would not normally qualify for them (see Housing debt measures, below). Coaliton forces brought to bear the use of air power for the first time since the end of the war. (The NAR's methodology was criticized by some analysts as it does not account for inflation [9]). A sharp surge in guerrilla attacks, ushered in an insurgent effort that was termed the “Ramadan Offensive,” as it coincided with the beginning of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. [8]. Toward the end of 2003, the intensity and pace of insurgent attacks began to increase.

For example, as of 2004 this ratio was equal to one year of income in the UK (Nottingham Trent University paper).
Another variant of this ratio measures the ratio of median family income to the income necessary to qualify for a typical mortgage or a typical home; this is what the National Association of Realtors calls the "housing affordability index" in its publications. A series of similar operations were launched throughout the summer in the Sunni Triangle. It is especially important for first-time buyers without existing home equity; if the downpayment becomes too high then those buyers may find themselves "priced out" of the market. Coalition military forces launched several operations around Tigris River peninsula and in the Sunni Triangle. The deposit to income ratio is the minimum required downpayment for a typical mortgage (definition of "typical" varies), expressed in months or years of income. efforts to establish a democratic state capable of defending itself ^[20], versus various insurgent demands that the foreign forces leave the country. According to Goldman's figures, a one-percentage-point rise in mortgage rates would reduce the fair value of home prices by 8%. It centers around Coalition and U.N.

"However, this estimate is based on an average mortgage rate of about 6%, and we expect rates to rise," the firm's economics team wrote in a recent report. The post-invasion environment began after the Hussein regime had been overthrown. [7].
According to a back-of-the-envelope calculation by Goldman Sachs economists, a comparison of median home prices to median household income suggests that US housing in 2005 is overvalued by 10%. [19] The insurgents are generally known to the Coalition forces as Anti-Iraqi Forces or AIF. This ratio, applied to individuals, is a basic component of mortgage lending decisions. There is evidence that some of the resistance was organized, perhaps by the fedayeen and other Saddam Hussein or Ba'ath loyalists, religious radicals, Iraqis angered by the occupation, and foreign terrorists. It is sometimes compiled separately for first time buyers and termed attainability. Insurgent tactics include mortars, suicide bombers, roadside bombs, small arms fire, and RPGs, as well as sabotage against the oil, water, and electrical infrastructure.

It is generally the ratio of median house prices to median familial disposable incomes, expressed as a percentage or as years of income. This resistance has been described as a type of guerrilla warfare. The price to income ratio is the basic affordability measure for housing in a given area. This may be misleading because Baghdad has a low ratio of attacks per capita. Combined they account for 32% of the population. The three provinces that had the most number of attacks were Baghdad, Anbar, and Salah Ad Din.

Critics point out that the regions where violence was most common was also the most populated regions, but this was not entirely true. This location includes Baghdad [18]. The insurgency in Iraq was concentrated in, but not limited to, an area referred to by Western media and the occupying forces as the Sunni triangle. According to the Pentagon, 250,000 tons (of 650,000 tons total) of ordnance were looted, providing an endless source of ammunition for the insurgents.

In May of 2003, after the Iraqi conventional forces had been defeated, the coalition military noticed a gradually increasing flurry of attacks on the multinational troops in various regions, such as the "Sunni Triangle." In the chaos after the war, massive looting of the infrastructure, and most catastrophically, munitions occurred. In the weeks that followed Bush's dramatic aircraft carrier landing, all types of crime significantly increased in Iraq due to the lack of law enforcement and security after the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime. However, one crewmember later stated the banner referred specifically to the aircraft carrier's mission and not the war itself. Clearly visible in the background was a banner stating "Mission Accomplished." It was criticized by some as premature - especially later as the guerrilla war dragged on.

Bush's landing was criticized by opponents as an overly theatrical and expensive stunt. Bush landed on the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, in a Lockheed S-3 Viking, where he gave a speech announcing the end of major combat operations in the Iraq war. On 1 May 2003 George W.
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The documented number of Iraqi civilians killed by the Coalition military forces since 2003 according to various estimates ranges from 27,295 up to 30,789 (as of December 2005). By no means did the Coalition invasion force see the entire Iraqi military thrown against it, and it is assumed that most units disintegrated to either join the growing Iraqi insurgency or return to their homes. Army attacked. forces, and as a result the units within were both confused and further demoralized when the U.S.

Worse, the Iraqi Army had incompetent leadership - reports state that Qusay Hussein, charged with the defense of Baghdad, dramatically shifted the positions of the two main divisions protecting Baghdad several times in the days before the arrival of U.S. Other Iraqi Army officers were bribed by the CIA or coerced into surrendering to coalition forces. Entire units simply melted away into the crowds upon the approach of Coalition troops. The Iraqi Army suffered from poor morale, even amongst the supposedly elite Republican Guard, their strength sapped after weeks of aerial bombardment.

The only tank loss sustained by the British Army was a Challenger 2 of the Queen's Royal Lancers that was hit by another Challenger 2, killing two crewmen. Three British tank crew fatalities happened as result of friendly fire. Even with the large number of RPG attacks by irregular Iraqi forces, few Coalition tanks were lost and no tank crewmen were killed by hostile fire. M1 Abrams and British Challenger 2, proved their worth in the rapid advance across the country.

The main battle tanks (MBT) of the Coalition forces, the U.S. Army, Marine Corps and Naval Aviation, and British Royal Air Force operated with impunity throughout the country, pinpointing heavily defended enemy targets and destroying them before ground troops arrived. Air Force, U.S. The U.S.

The Iraqi T-72 tanks, the heaviest armored vehicles in the Iraqi Army, were both outdated and ill-maintained and were destroyed quickly, in part due to the Coalition's control of the air. The Iraqi's artillery proved almost worthless, and Iraq did not mobilize its air force to attempt a defense. Attacks on Coalition supply routes by Fedayeen militiamen were repulsed. anti-air batteries, or missed their targets.

Missiles launched from Iraq were either interdicted by U.S. The Iraqi army, armed mainly with Soviet equipment, had no weapons that could stand up to invading forces, and managed only to stage a few ambushes that gained a great deal of media attention but in reality did nothing to slow the Coalition advance. This did prove short-sighted, however, due to the requirement for a much larger force to combat the irregular Iraqi forces in the aftermath of the war. Utilizing massive precision air strikes along with rapid ground attacks, the invasion seemed a success of the U.S., and did not require the huge army build-up like the 1991 Gulf War, which numbered half a million allied troops.

Coalition forces managed to topple the government and capture the key cities of a large nation in 21 days, taking minimal losses while attempting to avoid large civilian deaths and high numbers of dead Iraqi military forces. According to The New Statesman this was "Located at the furthest extreme of the southern no-fly zone, far away from the areas that needed to be patrolled to prevent attacks on the Shias, it was destroyed not because it was a threat to the patrols, but to allow allied special forces operating from Jordan to enter Iraq undetected." ^[17]. The September attacks included a 5 September 100-aircraft attack on the main air defence site in western Iraq. The weight of bombs dropped increased from none in March 2002 and 0.3 in April 2002 to between 8 and 14 tons per month in May-August, reaching a pre-war peak of 54.6 tons in September - prior to Congress' 11 October authorisation of the invasion.

A change in enforcement tactics was acknowledged at the time, but it was not made public that this was part of a plan known as Operation Southern Watch. began to change its response strategy, more carefully selecting targets in the southern part of the country in order to disrupt the military command structure in Iraq. In mid-2002, the U.S. Iraqi air-defense installations were engaged on a fairly regular basis after repeatedly targeting American and British air patrols.

Prior to invasion, the United States and other coalition forces involved in the 1991 Persian Gulf War had been engaged in a low-level conflict with Iraq, enforcing Iraqi no-fly zones. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld:. Operation Iraqi Freedom — often rumored to have been originally called Operation Iraqi Liberation before being changed due to an unwanted acronym — had the following military objectives, according to U.S. (ed., the details of this are cover in this article).

This conflict resulted in the defeat of the Iraqi regular Army and its supportive divisions. The "War of Iraq" refers to the war proper, beginning with the 2003 invasion, continuing in the occupation, and ending at the handover of sovereignty to the new Iraqi government. According to some opinion polls, the war was unpopular from the outset in many Coalition countries. efforts to establishing a sovereign state.

In post-invasion Iraq (2003–2005), after the Hussein regime had been overthrown, activity centered around coalition and U.N. The Iraqi forces presented little resistance to the invasion. The forces opposing the coalition units were the conscript Iraqi Regular Army reinforced and strengthened by the Republican Guard and Fedayeen Saddam. The US and UK claimed that the invasion was justified because Saddam Hussein had not complied with 19 UN resolutions requiring Iraq to destroy its special weapons and programs after the previous war.^[15][16].

The United States and the United Kingdom were the two major components of the US-dubbed "Coalition of the willing" that invaded Iraq and deposed Saddam Hussein's regime. The war was between the Iraqi military and a coalition of multinational forces. The War of Iraq (2003) was the war in the Middle East country of Iraq, which resulted from the the Iraq disarmament crisis of late 2002 and began with the invasion of 2003. Sa.

He also stated, in spite of missing stockpiles, that "the world is far safer with [...] the removal of Saddam Hussein." [http://www.ceip.org/. He stated, "the work of the Iraq Survey Group has shown that Saddam Hussein had WMD intentions, had WMD programs that did survive, and did outwit for 12 years the United Nations Security Council and the resolutions [...] in large measure." Kay did "believe that the effort that has been directed to this point has been sufficiently intense that it is highly unlikely that there were large stockpiles of deployed militarized chemical and biological weapons there". Kay went on though to say that, "Iraq was in clear violation of the terms of Resolution 1441". David Kay opened his testimony during the "Kay Report" at a Senate panel by stating "We were almost all wrong" on Iraq (a quote commonly missattributed to the later head of the ISG, Charles Duelfer,[13] [14]).

The Iraq Survey Group later released the final ISG report which included the following points:. Kay testified on January 28, 2004 that "the effort that has been directed to this point has been sufficiently intense that it is highly unlikely that there were large stockpiles of deployed, militarized chemical weapons [in Iraq]". In October 2003, the Iraq Survey Group released the report of interim ISG findings which indicated that small amounts of weapons of mass destruction were uncovered, (including a number of vials containing biological agents stored in the home refrigerators of Iraqi scientists, for example) as well as discoveries of non-WMD programs banned by the United Nations and concealed during the IAEA and UNMOVIC inspections that began in 2002. The following countries' governments did not support the War of Iraq:.

Concern is growing that corporations with ties to the Bush administration, notably Halliburton, which was provided no-bid contracts that many considered illegal due to their size, to be the primary beneficiaries of the execution of the war. [9] , with exceptionally poor accounting of how the funds are being spent. Critics have cited that, economically, the various engagements in Iraq has cost the United States about USD $200,000,000,000, and still costs about USD $6,000,000,000 a month. among other evidence that they believe connects this war to previous military actions.

This includes:. Antiwar activists and opponents of the war draw direct parallels to the earlier actions (especially the Vietnam War) via several debated elements of evidence. The opponents to the wars' main rationales are, in their opinion, the "fixed intelligence" and "lack of connection to 9/11". Since the October 2005 indictment of Lewis Libby, politicians (including some of those who saw the same intelligence that was classified and used by the executive branch in America) and some citizens have begun to question pre-war intelligence and how it may have been misused in order to "sell", in their opinion, a war to the American people.[8] On the Senate floor during speeches, it was stated that,.

By the summer of 2005, there was an increase in the number of individuals in the United States who felt the same way. Many viewed the war as improper (being a moral and ethical violation) and illegal under international law. The Iraq War was widely viewed by many critics as counterproductive. The war's unpopularity was reflected in widespread protests, including allegedly the largest worldwide protest in human history on February 15th, 2003 (eg., a day of Global protests against war in Iraq).

According to opinion polls, the war was unpopular from its beginning in many Coalition countries. [7]. Some also posit that since the United States military has not lost a single battle, the multinational forces have removed a dictatorship, and the foundation for a new democracy in the Middle East has been set down. Zawahiri’s alleged intercepted letters).

Proponents of the war say that "we should fight them over there, so we don't have to fight them over here."^{[citation needed]} Others have pointed out that the insurgents are losing in Iraq (as exposed in Dr. Recently revealed US government records raise the issue that the US may have played a role in Saddam's rise to power and provided his government with weapons of mass destruction. During the 1980's, the United States was pleased with its relationship with Iraq, despite chemical weapons, war with Iran, and alleged violations of civil liberties [6]. Throughout the 1980's the United States supported Saddam Hussein as an ally in the protection of American financial and political interests in the region.

No weapons of mass destruction were found in Iraq following the invasion. Bush's 2003 State of the Union Address:. Saddam's regime's alleged abuse of Iraqi citizens' human rights and the spread of democracy was cited, as mentioned in US President George W. Leaders of the multinational coalition have also pointed to human rights issues to justify the war.

These reasons were not those originally given (before the 2003 Iraq invasion) by the Bush administration of the United States before or after the initiation of the war, which instead included:. The first calls for war on Iraq came from the Project for the New American Century (PNAC), and the American Enterprise Institute, with arguments based largely on the disruption of the emerging modernizing Islamic Middle East, and the project of American influence into the next century. Over time, these have varied. Pretexts of the invasion and occupation as stated by the United States in 2002 before the Iraq invasion are likewise controversial factors.

As stated in public speakings such goals have changed notably since 2002, and views differ as to whether past statements should be considered "failed goals" (or "deceptive premises") for the war. The failure of western intelligence to distinguish between these two possibilities is perceived by some as a failure of intelligence. Both critics and supporters of the war have disagreed about the validity of the rationales, and over whether the ex post facto failure to find weapons "stockpiles" indicates the destruction or transportation of such weapons prior to the war or failure of intelligence (or, by some, deliberate deceit). They hold to concepts defined largely by lessons learned from American involvement in Southeast Asia.

Opponents of the war often hold that the current insurgency conflicts are a direct consequence of the U.S.-led invasion and occupation. To many critics, the Iraq War has numerous parallels with past wars (in particular the Vietnam War). military presence in a foreign country. Being dominantly driven by the United States various critics' eyes, the conflict is characterized by a large and dominant U.S.

In contrast, individuals who believe that the "Iraq war" is a continuing conflict base their concept of "war" and "occupation" on more general concepts, as opposed to the definitions of the United Nations, International law, military laws, or political techniques for using language effectively. Because the United States has made no effort to estimate civilian casualities, the estimates vary considerably. A better metric to determine precisely who the war is being waged upon should compare the number of civilian Iraqi deaths with the number of Iraqi soldiers killed in the first year of the war. the operations delimited to major hostilities against the Saddam Hussein government of Iraq and limited to the 2003 invasion and the succeeding period of military occupation) rest on rationalisations which tend to disagree, in various opinions, with direct or meaningful comparisons with other conflicts, though these are largely found in stated (or perceived) goals by the Coalition for the invasion and occupation.

The more exclusive definitions of the "Iraq War" term (ie. A derivative of this viewpoint sees much of the current violence almost exclusively as expressions of the Iraqi sectarian divisions, and characterize the occupation as democratic, and preventative of a larger civil war. Though Coalition military officials have used the capitalized phrase Iraq War in this relatively narrow sense, they, and those politically in support of the invasion and current military presence (or 'occupation') also consistently use the terms Iraq war and 'war in Iraq. Alternatively, if the term includes the subsequent military occupation of Iraq, the "War" ended with the ceremonial handover of sovereignty to the new Iraqi government in June 2004.

According to this view, the "War" ended with the "cessation of major hostilities" between established military forces. Further definition of the term varies with usage and point of view; hence, depending on the context, the term 'Iraq War' or 'Iraq war' may refer to hostilities in Iraq that fit one of two general contexts: multinational forces"³ invasion of March 2003, and the three-week period of full-scale military hostilities between the multinational forces against the established, uniformed military forces (that is, Saddam Hussein "old" Iraqi Army). The term Iraq war is often left uncapitalized to indicate the legal informality and the lack of clarity in distinguishing among various operations and violent episodes. military forces.

Formal declaration or not, Iraq was nevertheless invaded by U.S. In international law^[1] however, an ultimatum is considered equal to a proper declaration. Constitution could only be done by Congress; the last time that Congress made a formal declaration of war was for World War II). For instance, the United States never formally declared war on Iraq (which under the U.S.

Variance in the use of the 'Iraq war' term can be traced to basic differences in the operative definition for 'war' and 'occupation'; as well as the understanding of 'political authority' and 'sovereignty'. . The Iraq War or War in Iraq^1,2 is both an informal and a formal American term for the military conflict in Iraq including the 2003 Invasion of Iraq by the United States and United Kingdom, overthrow of the governing dictatorship, occupation and subsequent military activities by US, UK and other forces.³. NewsMax.com Wires, Friday, 14 January 2005.

^  "President Regrets 'Bring 'Em On'". 30 April 2004 6:54 AM. USA TODAY. ^  Soriano, Cesar G., and Steven Komarow, "Poll: Iraqis out of patience".

globalsecurity.org. ^  "Operation Iraqi Freedom Maps". Time Magazine, Thursday, 10 April 2003. could soon find itself policing an ugly brawl".

The U.S. ^  Karon, Tony, "Why Turks and Kurds Prize Kirkuk : Kurdish fighters have captured Kirkuk and Turkey is agitated. CNN Washington Bureau, Wednesday, October 29, 2003. ^ , Dana, Bash, "White House pressed on 'mission accomplished' sign; Navy suggested it, White House made it, both sides say".

New Statesman, 30 May 2005. ^  Smith, Michael, "The war before the war". whitehouse.gov, February 5, 2003. Security Council".

Secretary of State Colin Powell Addresses the U.N. ^  "U.S. state.gov (Washington, DC), February 20, 2003. Powell, "Interview On BBC's NewsNight".

^  Secretary Colin L. An Ounce of Prevention- Looting of Munitions- Sept 2005. USAToday, 8 September 2005. speech a 'blot' on his record".

^  "Powell calls pre-Iraq U.N. ^  Hague Convention relative to the Opening of Hostilities, article one. Note 3: The term "multinational" in Multinational forces in Iraq is criticized due to the fact that most participating nations' troop contributions were vestigial when 98% of the invading forces were provided by the United States and the United Kingdom. Note 2: "War" is often written in lowercase, such as in "Iraq war", to indicate informal status or to distinguish its definition from the formal variant (as in "Iraq War").

Saddam Hussein convinced his top military commanders that Iraq did indeed possess WMD that could be used against any U.S. suitable for continuing chemical biological weapons research");. that contained equipment .. Iraq had destroyed its stockpiles of biological and chemical weapons after the Gulf War [10](but discoveries made by the ISG include a "clandestine network of laboratories ..